StarFantasySports.com: 4/7/2007 - A Look At Japanese Players Not Named Dice-K

Every day I will be looking over the performances & trends from previous baseball games to help you make educated decisions about your fantasy baseball roster. Here are a few players from yesterday’s action:

Jacobs putting last year’s April behind him. Last year, Mike Jacobs had a putrid April, hitting only .192 & almost lost his job at first base. This year, Jacobs is enjoying his April thus far, batting .412 with 3 extra base hits in 17 AB’s. At the age of 26, this may be his breakout year, but of course there are some red flags. Jacobs has the tendency to strikeout more than we’d like, which will affect his batting average & HR production. Last year he started taking more walks, which is a positive step towards plate discipline. So far, he only has 2 strikeouts this year, which is a very encouraging sign. The power is for real, but can he take that final step? Looks good so far, but if you roster him, you must monitor his strikeouts, which will be the key to his breakout. If he can strikeout less than 18% of the time, he’ll be a solid fantasy player.

Iwamura making a solid transition from Japan. While Dice-K may be getting a majority of the press (and rightfully so), another Japanese player making head way is Akinori Iwamura. Iwamura was 4 for 4 last night, including a solo homerun, his first in the big leagues & currently sports a .636 average. So how much upside does Iwamura have? During his last 3 years in Japan, he hit 30 or more HR & batted .300 or better. It’ll be interesting to see how his batting average transfers over, because he struck out quite a bit in Japan but walks a lot as well, showing both good & poor plate discipline. So far he has 0 strikeouts & 2 walks. You can probably expect around 20 HR this year, but you’ll have to monitor his plate discipline, which will be the key to his transition. Stash him on your bench if you can.

Oliver Perez looking to regain that 2004 form. Oliver Perez looked to be a young stud on the rise after his 2004 year, but completely fell apart the last two years. Perez took his first positive step last night, going 7 innings, striking out 6, while allowing only 5 hits, 1 run & a very impressive ZERO walks. Extremely high walk & homerun totals are what have doomed him in the past but his strikeout rate has still stayed excellent. The one run he gave up last night was a homerun, so he’s still having problems there, but not allowing a free pass is a HUGE step in the right direction. He’s most likely available on many waiver wires, so should you take the risk? Arggh….the choice is up to you. You know the risk as well as the reward. One outing doesn’t change the last 2 years, but it’s hard to ignore how good that 2004 season would look for your team this year. I’m a risk taker, so I’m going to grab him. Keep your fingers crossed.

Moseley pitches well in place of injured Weaver. With Jared Weaver still rehabbing his injury, Dustin Moseley got the start and pitched well. Moseley went 6 innings, only giving up 5 hits, 1 run & no walks while striking out 4. Is he worth a spot on your roster? The answer is an emphatic no…at least for now. Since 2004, Moseley has posted an ERA north of 4.60 in all his AAA campaigns. There are some positive signs though. Since 2004, Moseley has lowered his walk rate while upping his strikeout rate, finally reaching that all important 2 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio last year. It took him 2 years to figure out AA, so maybe it’s the same case for AAA. In either case, he’ll likely have only one more start before being sent down for Weaver. Avoid at this time until we see more consistency at both levels.

Kaz Matsui showing signs of life. After his lackluster performance in New York, Kaz Matsui, a star Japanese import, was considered a bust by many. When he got traded to Colorado & spent some time in the minors, he was called up late last year and played well, hitting .345 & slugging .504 with 8 stolen bags in only 113 AB’s. His success has carried over early this year, with Matsui going 3 for 4 last night, raising his average to .462 on the year (slugging is at .615), while swiping 2 bags as well. While he doesn’t walk as much as we’d like to see in a base stealer, he does make solid contact, which is essential for anyone with speed. He also qualifies at a shallow 2B position. He certainly deserves your full attention at this point & may quite well be this year’s version of Brandon Phillips. If you have a need at second base or if you need some speed, he’s most likely the best option on the waiver wire & worth the risk. There’s upside here.

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StarFantasySports.com: 4/6/2007 - Reyes Gets The Save For Tampa Bay

Every day I will be looking over the performances & trends from previous baseball games to help you make educated decisions about your fantasy baseball roster. Here are a few players from yesterday’s action:

Crisp is struggling out of the gate. A player who was identified as a good rebound candidate for this year was Coco Crisp, but so far he’s been anemic. While he did finally get an RBI single yesterday, his batting average currently stands at .100, leaving many owners to consider dropping him. Crisp broke his finger in April of last year and it went downhill from there. While he did steal 22 bags, he only hit 8 HR and batted .264, way down from his career norms. This year he was to be fully healthy, but reported a sore left shoulder in spring training and appears to not be recovered from that. Crisp has always made good contact through out his career, though his walking ability still could use a boost. His growth in slugging percentage the two years prior shows that more power could be on the way. He has the tools to be a .300, 20 HR, 30 SB player, which would make him a top fantasy outfielder. The key thing is he needs to stay healthy, which at this point is questionable. I wouldn’t drop him yet & if you could acquire him cheap, I might make that move because he may get healthy, but you’ll need to monitor his status all season long. That breakout may not happen until 2008 with a truly healthy season.

Hudson’s next step may be power. For several years, Orlando Hudson had held steady, providing not much growth or decline until last year, when he finally received 579 AB’s, upped his walk rate & batting average and became a productive fantasy 2B. At the age of 29, it looked like that may be his peak, but early on this season, he’s showing growth in power. In 2006, he raised his slugging from .412 to .454, the highest of his career. In spring training this year, he slugged .623 and has continued it on early this season, where he currently sports a slugging percentage of .647. It’s too early to tell if this is for real or not, but 20+ HR aren’t out of reach. Another bonus is that his strikeout rate has gone down since 2004, making a .300 season not so far fetched as long as he continues to show good plate discipline with the walks he’s taking. In NL Only leagues where quality 2B is scarce, you may look into acquiring his services before it’s too late.

Reyes gets first crack at saves for Tampa Bay. There was uncertainty on who was going to close in Tampa Bay, but after last night, it looks like it’ll be Al Reyes for now. Reyes came in and pitched a perfect 9th inning for the save and struck out a batter as well. Throughout his career, Reyes has been a journey man, but for what reason is hard to figure out. He’s always has had a good strikeout rate during his career and while he can be inconsistent with his walks at times, he’s shown good strikeout to walk ratios too. He is coming back from Tommy John surgery & is 35 years old, so who knows what can happen. The year before Tommy John surgery, he was stellar with the Cardinals, going 62 2/3 innings with 67 strikeouts, only 20 walks, 5 homeruns allowed & a 2.15 ERA. He holds the essential skills to be a closer and if you are looking for saves, he actually makes a very viable option.

Morris solid last night, but there still are warning signs. Matt Morris had a horrible year last year, which he blamed mostly on injured ribs. Fully healthy, Morris had a sub par spring, which led many to believe he wasn’t healthy after all. After his first start, some may think he’s back to his old self, but hold the phone. He went 6 innings, gave up only 5 hits, however he walked 2 batters & struck out only 2 as well. Last year Morris’ downfall was the fact that his strikeout rate continued to plummet while his walk rate climbed. If you can’t strikeout anyone anymore, you certainly can’t start walking batters, which he has failed to realize in spring training and his first game of the regular season. He could still rebound, but as of now, I wouldn’t touch him.

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StarFantasySports.com: 4/5/2007 - Sizemore May Enter The Level Of The Elite

Every day I will be looking over the performances & trends from previous baseball games to help you make educated decisions about your fantasy baseball roster. Here are a few players from yesterday’s action:

Sizemore hits game winning shot. After starting off the 2007 season with a homerun on Monday, Grady Sizemore hit a two run game winning shot last night to give the Indians their second win on the season. Sizemore took a big step last year by not only hitting 28 HR, he also blasted 55 doubles, raising his slugging percentage from .484 to .533. Those doubles he hit last year are a great sign that the power he’s displaying early on is no fluke, and may very well hit 35+ HR’s. While he increased his walk rate last year, he also increased his strikeout rate as well. Early in his career in the minors, he didn’t strikeout nearly as much as he does now, so if he figures that out in the big leagues, a .300 average & much more await. Add that with his speed & he will be a first round pick for many years to come.

Jorge Julio off to a rocky start. The Florida Marlins were only 3 outs away from starting the year by sweeping the Nationals, but unfortunately that all came crashing down after a 9th inning meltdown by Jorge Julio. Julio was only able to record one out (on a sacrifice bunt) while giving up 5 hits, 3 runs and a walk. Julio started hot last year but cooled way down in the second half, due mainly to increased walks. There are a lot of question marks here. First off, he increased his strikeout rate last year to a level he’s never been before. Secondly, he’s always given out lots of free passes in his career. And last but not least, his homerun rate has always been high. These are not good signs for a closer. If you own Julio, you may want to pick up Kevin Gregg and/or Matt Lindstrom, who would be next in line for saves.

Macier Izturis steals quietly. When Chone Figgins went down for an extended period, many owners were wondering what to do about the absence of his stolen bases. Hopefully you realized that his replacement, Macier Izturis, is just the answer you were looking for. While the 70% success rate he had last year was nothing to get excited about, he was given 20 stolen base opportunities (successful 14 times) in 390 plate appearances. Already swiping 2 bags in 2 games, it appears as if he’s got the green light at all times. He also has all the qualities you look for in a base stealer as he makes solid contact & walks fairly often. Last check on ESPN.com shows that he is owned in less than 1% of the leagues out there. If you are looking for some speed, Izturis makes a great short term pick up until Figgins comes back.

Ted Lilly paying dividends early. Another pitcher who signed a rich contract with questionable stats was Ted Lilly. Based off of last night however, Lilly looked worth every penny. Lilly went 7 innings, striking out 9, while only giving up 3 hits, a walk & a run. Lilly’s biggest problem in the past was walks & homeruns, which as many of you know, is a deadly combo that will give you ERA’s north of 4. So far so good, but you can’t discount years of facts. He plays in a homerun friendly field, so limiting his walks will be key this year. If you decide to roster him, you must monitor his walk rate very carefully.

Harden out to rebound from injury plagued 2006. Rich Harden made his fantasy owners breath a sigh of relief after pitching a brilliant outing last night. Harden went 7 innings, striking out 7 while only giving up 3 hits & 2 walks. Last year Harden only pitched 46 innings and his injuries really hurt his performance. While his strikeout rate rose, so did his walk rate in a big way. The talent has always been there for Harden and his walk rate should come down this year, but last year was his second injuries plague season in a row, which makes him a huge health risk. On the flip side, due to his injuries, he has a fresh arm, meaning if he can go all season, then he may have the year we’ve been expecting for awhile. Harden owners, keep your fingers crossed.

Khalil Greene blasts first homerun of the season. After having high hopes for a breakout season last year, Khalil Greene fell short of expectations, most of it due to a finger injury. This year, a healthy Greene hit his first homerun of the season in San Diego’s 5-3 win over the Giants. Greene has the power at a scarce position to become a very quality fantasy starter, but can he breakthrough? Greene only makes average contact, so his ability to hit for high average will be hard to do, so at best expect around a .280 average. However, he hasn’t had a 500 AB season yet, so if he can hit that magic number, 20+ HR are in reach. Health is the only thing standing in his way right now, so monitor carefully.

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StarFantasySports.com: 4/4/2007 - Is There A New Elite 2B This Year?

Every day I will be looking over the performances & trends from previous baseball games to help you make educated decisions about your fantasy baseball roster. Here are a few players from yesterday’s action:

Daniel Cabrera is still wild. One of the more interesting fantasy baseball players is Daniel Cabrera, who will strike out a ton….and walk a ton in a single outing. While he only gave up 3 runs, 6 hits & struck out 9 in 7 innings of work yesterday, he also walked 4 batters as well. The most important stat that is needed for a pitcher to be effective is to have a 2 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio or higher. It’s an important stat because it indicates how well a pitcher is able to leave hitters off the base paths. 9 K’s to 4 walks is an encouraging start, as Cabrera has never been able to get over that 2 to 1 ratio in a season. Certainly we’d like to see less walks, but you should keep your eye on him for the next couple starts.

Josh Bard has his first 4 hit game. Hopefully when you were drafting you saw that catcher Josh Bard, who hit over .300 last year, now has a fulltime gig in San Diego. Out to prove last year was no fluke, Bard had 4 hits (1 double), 2 runs & an RBI in his Opening Day debut. Bard has shown throughout his minor league & major league career that he is able to make contact & draw walks, both essential tools in order to have a high batting average. He did hit a good amount of ground balls last year, so that may limit some of his power, but he did slug .522 last year as well. Right now all signs point to him being a very productive fantasy catcher this year. If you are unsure about your catcher position at this point, snag him if he’s available.

Ian Kinsler is flexing his muscles. Despite putting together a solid season last year in Texas, Ian Kinsler flew a bit under the radar in most fantasy drafts. He came into Spring Training this year with an added 21 pounds, which he claims is almost all muscle. So far, it seems to be paying off, as he hit his second homerun in as many days, as well as scoring 2 runs & stealing a base. Last year he had only 423 AB’s, but he still managed to hit .286 with 14 HR, 55 RBI, 65 Runs & 11 SB’s. If he continues that production with around 600 AB’s he’ll get this year, that’s Top 5 2B material, especially if the increased power is for real. If you got him in the later rounds or for cheap in auction drafts, pat yourself on the back. If for some reason he fell through the cracks and is available as a free agent, pick him up IMMEDIATLEY!

Ian Snell is dynamite. Let me explain how effective Ian Snell was last night against Houston: He only gave up 4 hits in a hitter’s park; he struck out 11 while walking only 1 AND he did all that by throwing only 86 pitches. That my friends, is what you call efficiency. Last year’s 4.74 ERA didn’t show much potential for this year, but that is why you must look between the numbers. During the second half last year he dialed up his strikeout rate, getting 99 K’s in 98 innings while maintaining a decent walk rate. What doomed him was the long ball, which was the one run that was given up by him yesterday. If he can solve that, this kid has the potential to bust out in a big way. Last night was no fluke & if you can still acquire him, do so now.

Jose Valverde continues his inconsistencies. One guy who has all the tools to be a top flight closer but continues to be inconsistent is Jose Valverde. After a stellar 2005, he struggled early last year, and then in the second half he became invincible, regaining the closer’s job in Arizona. After saving the game on Monday by striking out 3 of the 4 batters he faced, it seemed that all was well, and then yesterday he bombed, not only blowing the save but taking the loss as well. While some may panic, it’s nothing to worry about at this point. He hasn’t walked anybody nor has he given up a homerun, and one of the runs last night wasn’t his fault. Bad luck set him back yesterday in a hitter’s park, so don’t be concerned. He still remains a top option for saves & if there is a Valverde owner in your league worried about his performance, you might be able to buy low right now.

Just a side note….very odd that there have been 44 hits in Colorado the last 2 days and only 1 HR. Food for thought.

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StarFantasySports.com: 4/3/2007 - Hot Starts & A Blown Save

Opening Day has come & gone (well, for most teams), so let's review some of the highlights & lowlights from yesterday's action:

B.J. Upton starts at 2B. With Jorge Cantu down in the minors, top prospect B.J. Upton takes over 2B and played well yesterday versus the Yankees. He had 2 hits in 4 AB's with a run scored, an RBI & a SB. Upton was in the #9 slot in the lineup and most likely will hold that role for a little while. Ben Zobrist, who batted #2, was 0 for 4 & most likely doesn't have the tools to hold that spot. Upton doesn't have much power, but has serious speed. He already has value as it is, but if he can take over that #2 spot, his value will sky rocket with the number of SB & run scoring opportunities. Monitor where he's placed in the Devil Rays lineup.

Hanley Ramirez carries over his outstanding rookie campaign. Hanley Ramirez showed early that last year's rookie campaign was no fluke. Ramirez went 4 for 6, with 2 doubles, 4 runs, 2 SB & an RBI. There was some worry that he may have had his career year during his rookie year, but based on today's game, he may be just that good. There were some questions that maybe the 2nd half power last year was a fluke, but the two doubles today may say it wasn't. In any case, it's still too early to judge, so if a regression comes this year, don't be surprised. If you are a Ramirez owner though, you shouldn't need to worry about your SS position this year.

Gil Meche pitches a gem. One of the most controversial signings in the off-season was the big contract Gil Meche got the Kansas City Royals. While Meche had his best season last year, a 4.50 ERA doesn't necessarily scream big contract worthiness. He did deliver big yesterday however, going 7 1/3 innings, giving up 6 hits, only 1 walk & 6 strikeouts. Is he actually this good? His history says “no”, but let's look deeper. Last year Meche upped his strikeout rate from 5.2 to 7.5 strikeouts per 9 innings. His biggest problem in the past has been walks, but only allowing 1 today is an encouraging start. If he keeps his strikeouts coming while lowering his walks, he may actually justify the money he's being paid. Too early to recommend, but this is a positive sign.

Hitting returns to Colorado . For the first 5 months last year, Colorado was actually a neutral field. Using the “humidor”, it actually looked like they tamed the bats in Coors Field….at least until September. During the last month last year, the hitting returned and for the first game this year, it looks like that trend is continuing. Both Webb & Cook got hit hard and when all was said & done, 14 runs were scored on 23 hits. What does this mean? It's hard to say. The fact that Holliday & Atkins improved last year WITH the humidor could mean that they are primed for bigger seasons this year. Maybe the humidor has no effect and last year was simply an anomaly & a coincidence. In any case, this will be interesting to see how it plays out. If you are still drafting, you may want to up tick your Rockies hitters a bit on your draft sheets.

King Felix thrives on the throne. Despite being just barely legal enough to buy alcohol, Felix Hernandez got the opening day start for the Mariners and looked every bit the pitcher we saw in 2005. He went 8 innings, giving up just 3 hits & 2 walks while striking out 12. Last year he went into a sophomore slump, but his strikeout to walk ratio was about the same as 2005. The culprit? His homeruns per 9 innings sky rocketed from the previous year, thus giving him a poor ERA. Make no mistake, Hernandez is an extreme groundball pitcher, so you have to wonder if it was just bad luck he ran into last year. We'll find out soon enough as the season wears on, but this kid has stud written all over him. Enjoy his production.

Lidge blows another one. How long can giving up a game winning hits & homeruns in the playoffs haunt you? For Brad Lidge, it may be forever. After a horrible spring, Lidge came in last night for the save, gets the first 2 batters out, and then proceeds to give up a game tying homerun to Xavier Nady. Last year walks & homeruns doomed Lidge, which he didn't figure out in his first game this year. How much do the playoffs still linger in his mind? Does he have a hidden injury? You really have to start to wonder if Lidge has the closer's mentality anymore. If you are or aren't a Lidge owner, you must pick up Dan Wheeler immediately. Save opportunities await him VERY soon.

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StarFantasySports.com: 4/2/2007 - Molina Bats 5th? Taguchi in Left?

Ah yes, baseball is finally back! Hopefully your fantasy baseball teams are drafted and ready to go. While it's only one game, let's look over a couple fantasy implications from last night's action between the St. Louis Cardinals & New York Mets:

Yadier Molina bats 5th, Taguchi starts in left field. One of the few surprises was seeing Yadier Molina batting 5 th in the Cardinals lineup last night & So Taguchi starting in left field. When you look deeper, it really wasn't all that surprising based on the horrible numbers Edmonds & Duncan had against left handed pitching last year. Molina didn't bat well against lefties last year either, but did bat .299 against them in 2005. While Taguchi will go back to his backup outfielder role as the season rolls on, Molina bears watching. Not only did he have a monster spring, but he also had 2 hits in the game in the #5 spot. Molina is likely to go back to the bottom of the order starting Tuesday against veteran righty Orlando Hernandez, but if he continues to move up in the lineup against lefties & continues over his spring production, RBI opportunities await if you play him right.

Glavine is a stud, Carpenter is a dud. It's the first game of the year, so you should not take into account very much from this game….unless it becomes a trend. For Glavine, 6 hits in 6 innings with only 1 walk was good. However, he only had 2 strikeouts, which begs the question if he can repeat his K per 9 rate from last year. Your money should be on “no” considering his age, but he did play against the Cardinals, so let's wait it out before we draw conclusions. Just something to keep in the back of your mind. Chris Carpenter had a rough game but hey, it was against the Mets. Went 6 innings, had only 1 walk, but the 9 hits killed him. He was only able to strikeout 3 batters and couldn't seem to get that strikeout when he needed it the most. Once again, it's EXTREMELY early, so let's move on. Just like Glavine's situation, it's just something to watch for in his next outing.

That's it for day one, but there will be plenty more once Day 2 is completed. Can't wait to see what unfolds!

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